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S5 Ep. 12

Investment Uncut: Election forecasts with Kelly Beaver

Investment Election 2024

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This episode was recorded on 20 March 2024 and therefore does not reflect any events after this date.

In this week’s episode, Mary Spencer and Jacob Shah discuss election forecasts and keeping your finger on the pulse of society with Kelly Beaver, CEO at IPSOS.

Before we interview Kelly, we also welcome back fellow co-host Laasya Shekaran from her three-month sabbatical. Laasya gives us her highlights from her trip, the biggest surprises and what she is most looking forward to now she’s home.

With Kelly we discuss:

  • The range of research IPSOS is involved in (did you know only 1% of IPSOS’ revenue comes from election related polls?)
  • Whether Labour’s current lead in the polls really means they’re on course to win a majority at the next general election (spoiler alert – Labour still has a mountain to climb!)
  • The story that might be being missed by focussing on only the main parties in the UK and some of the dynamics at play when you look at the polling data for smaller parties.
  • The current state of the nation’s mood, following a period of several challenges in recent years (such as the cost-of-living crisis) and why we’re in the “restless decade”.
  • How reliable we should consider polling results and how IPSOS goes about identifying trends or turning points in their data.

What’s one thing you would like listeners to take away from this?

  • The importance of getting out of your own bubble and being able to interrogate what you’re actually seeing in the public domain. Seek proper evidence for what you’re seeing and avoid the perils of perception!

Any recommendations for good books or podcasts: